John McCain will get a temporary convention bounce which will draw him into a tie with Obama (or even a slight lead) for the next couple of days before the bounce goes away and Obama retakes a 5-8 point lead which will be Obama's to lose, maintain, or expand depending on the debates. And John McCain has in my view wrapped up Oklahoma. Heck he's wrapped up Alabama, Mississippi, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, Utah, Nebraska, and Kansas too. I even think McCain is going to win Texas, South Carolina, Arizona South Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, and probably Georgia, Arkansas, and West Virginia as well.
And if the election was today, Obama still wins the electoral college vote.
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