By my count, this is the third major contest that we've been wrong about.  We complain that the Bush administration is in a bubble and needs to join the reality-based community.  By the count of the election, he is there, and we're not.

Why are we, for the third time running, surprised by the result of an election?  Why are we not listening to reality?  

We've put ourselves into an echo chamber and its time to get out.  Read on.

Murdoch's NY Post with a good helping of egg on its face:

According to ARG, Dean is now leading in OK,  and in Arizona.  It looks like the pieces are falling into place.

I know its early, I know this is within the margin of error, but the momentum is going with Dean on this one.  It would take a major F*ck up or a serious external event to derail this train.

At least, that's the way I see it.

Great article in the Nation about the real constituency Dems should be targetting:  Latinos.

Provided (and its a BIG assumption) that Dean/Clark can pick up the same states Gore won (excluding Florida), if they can pickup Arizona, they win.  Its a big if.  

But not as big as you may think anymore.  With the Latino vote swinging the Democratic way, the argument goes that 4 states could stay or swing into the Democratic column: New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and Colorado.  

Provided this is the case, it would seem to make it a good idea to choose Richardson as your Veep.  Comments?

Sharpton has a long history of being a spoiler in local state elections.  Apparently, he wants to be courted and consulted before you make a political move that concerns the minority community.  Basically he wants to be the Political boss of minorities.  

He actively worked against Green in the last election, throwing the vote to Bloomberg (another republican) by basically calling Green a racist.

And he's at it again.  This is from today's Note:

"Just three days after Gore's endorsement, the New York Times ran a story titled, "Sharpton's Support Slips Despite National Attention" detailing his loss of support in New York. Sharpton issued a number of threats last week both to local officials who he believes have abandoned him and to Howard Dean. Sharpton released a statement asking "Will the real Howard Dean please stand up?" and shortly thereafter made virtually unnoticed threats to withhold votes with his political machine should Dean be the nominee."

Again, if Sharpton isn't in control, he tries to destroy the candidacy of others.  He vows to work against the democrats, and he follows through on it.  That's why, as funny as he is, he needs to go and go soon.

What can be done about him?

As this campaign has progressed, I find that I like John Edwards more and more.  

What's funny is that I'm a Dean supporter, since early January this year.  I participated in the first Feb. meetup for Dean in NYC (with about 15 people) and helped to form NY for Dean (which since has faded into the official campaign).  

So how can I, someone who has supported Dean from the get-go, like Edwards -- who even attacked Dean last night at the RTV?

I dunno.  I've been saying to myself and others that if this were any other year, and if we had most any other president, I think Edwards would be the man to beat.  I like his style, his charm and his politics.  He knows how to take some complex ideas and give them a very simple line that resonates.  He's obviously skilled as a diplomat, since even when he was attacking my man Dean, I didn't dislike him for it (unlike Kerry, Geppy and Lieberman).

So who's your second man (or woman)?  Who would you most like to see in the Pres spot if your person doesn't get the nod?