The way I figure it, 2022 and 2024 will be the last two truly free and fair national elections in the United States for some time.
Contrary to some folks, I am extremely pessimistic about this year. I think the Democrats get wiped out almost everywhere, with a few pockets of “better than expected” results for the Blue team, such as in Michigan. In that state, for example, you have a unique set of circumstances that will help offset the national red wave. First, you have new redistricted legislative districts that were drawn by a non-partisan redistricting commission. Second, you have a major voting rights and reproductive freedom constitutional amendments on the ballot. Third, the GOP nominated some of the worst, most unappealing statewide candidates in recent memory for Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General. And finally, you have very appealing incumbent democrats in all those statewide offices. As an added bonus, you have a State Supreme Court that is controlled by Democrats, which has been staving off any last-minute legal shenanigans by Republicans. With all of those advantages, you would expect the Democrats to completely wipe the floor with the GOP in a normal election. But the national climate is so bad, that even in Michigan, there is some consternation about whether they can win — and if Democrats do win, whether it will be far closer than it should be.
So, I fully expect that Congress will be solidly GOP for the next two years. This means endless investigations into Joe Biden and his cabinet, maybe even an impeachment. This means there will be virtually no chance to get any Judges confirmed, and probably very few if any executive branch officials either. We will see a return to budget stalemates and crises, again. We will threaten to default on the national debt, again. And we may even be in a recession thanks to the Federal Reserve.
And that’s the “good” news. That looks an awful like 2011 and 2012 under Barack Obama. But when we look back on this history of this country, we may regard these as the last days of the American experiment in enlightened self-governance. This is because the Democrats will absolutely have to win the 2024 Presidential election, or whole 235-year run will be over. A radicalized GOP Congress and White House (President DeSantis gives me the shivers, let alone a return of Donald Trump) will run roughshod over our Democracy in advance of the 2026 midterms. And the conservative Supreme Court will ratify all of it.
I would not be shocked if the voting rights act is repealed. Or, perversely, Democratic states like California are placed under preclearance requirements. And that’s just for starters. Abortion will be banned nationally. LGBTQ protections will be stripped from US Civil Rights laws. Campaign finance laws will, be repealed, or so liberalized that they might as well not exist. You may even see the GOP House refuse to seat elected officials from Jurisdictions like California, or Michigan because of manufactured “voter fraud.” In other words, say hello to a North American version of Hungary or Turkey, where the party in power rigs the electoral system to keep themselves in power. Filibuster, you say? LOL! Joe Manchin will be mighty upset.
And if the United States domino falls, that’s all she wrote for democracy world-wide in the longer term. There will be no democratic world power to come to the rescue of liberal democratic values if we have another world war. I hope I’m wrong. I wish I was wrong. But, frankly, I’m too depressed to even try to come up with a more optimistic scenario. Maybe if both Biden and Harris decline to run in 2024 for the good of the Country, we could possibly eek out a victory despite the electoral college. But that is about as likely to happen as a Blue Wave in 2022.
Fin